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Vice President will beat former President this November, says the historian who successfully predicted 9 out of 10 presidential elections since 1984. “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States, at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” , a presidential historian at American University, told The New York Times in a video interview that aired on Thursday. Lichtman, whose "Keys to the White House" prediction model consists of 13 true-or-false questions, said in the interview that eight keys were in Harris' favor.
Trump, Lichtman said, had three keys going for him — one, Harris isn't an incumbent; two, Harris isn't, in his opinion, a "once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate"; and three, the Democratic Party lost control of the House during the midterm elections in 2022. But that was outnumbered by eight other keys. Besides benefiting from the positive short- and long-term economic conditions as well as legislative accomplishments under President Joe Biden's administration, Harris' candidacy wasn't dogged by any scandals or ongoing social unrest, Lichtman said.
In addition, Harris did not have to go through a primary contest to succeed Biden as nominee, he added. Lichtman said that it helped that she was facing off against Trump, who "only appeals to a narrow base." Harris, he said, also didn't have a third-party challenger since suspended his campaign last month.
The last two keys — on foreign policy failures and su.
