When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or . However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They’ve successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.

While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably. Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.

Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out. "It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.

And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November. As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, p.